Sara Duterte blows her load

THE big news here in the Philippines during the past week was the announcement of Vice President Sara Duterte that she would be seeking the presidency in 2028. That was not really a surprise; she has been a presumptive candidate ever since her father Rodrigo Duterte gained the upper hand in the campaign for the presidency in 2016. However, to political observers in this country – particularly those who, like myself, consider 90+ percent of the local political class to be a bunch of complete assclowns – Sara’s announcement reeked of pathetic desperation.

Let me backtrack a bit for the benefit of those who may not be familiar with how the Philippine political system works. Unlike in the US, the president and vice-president are elected separately. Presidential candidates will typically take on a vice-presidential candidate as a “running mate” for strategic reasons, but it is more likely than not that the tandem will have a political falling-out at some point, leading to a situation where the Vice President and the President are bitterly opposed to one another. It has happened with Sara Duterte and President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr.; during the term of Sara’s father Rodrigo, his Vice President Leni Robredo – a polar opposite in personality and ideology – became the chief opposition figure; and in the time of Duterte’s predecessor, the late Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III, his chief opposition was his vice-president, Jejomar Binay. One has to go all the way back to the pre-2010 days to find a President-Vice President tandem who got along, then-president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and her vice president, broadcaster Noli de Castro. And the harmony there was likely only possible because de Castro has the personality and political strength of a half-eaten bowl of pudding.

In normal times – if “normal” is even a thing in this clown school of a political environment – the declaration of candidacies and the campaigning for the top elected office in the land would not begin until perhaps the end of the first quarter of next year (the election will be in May 2028). Thus, Sara is a whole year ahead of herself, which leaves way too much time for her or her organization to fuck things up. She only teamed up with Marcos as the vice presidential candidate for the 2022 elections because 1) the Marcos people understood that the considerable amount of popularity the Duterte name enjoys in the south of the country would be an advantage, and 2) because she was polling poorly on a nationwide basis for her own run for the presidency in 2022. Had she not teamed up with Marcos, she probably would have finished third or fourth in the presidential race.

The reason Sara Duterte declared her 2028 candidacy now is because she is currently facing a total of four impeachment complaints before the House of Representatives. Now to be fair, there is a definite unseriousness about the way congress people and those who would like to think they are politically important go about these impeachment moves; two spurious complaints against President Marcos have already been rejected by the House in the past couple of weeks. In Sara’s case, however, there is strong evidence that would probably result in her conviction and removal from office (as well as being banned from running for any other offices), if the case was handled at all objectively, which it will of course not be.

Sara Duterte is charged with various things, but the main ones are massive embezzlement of public funds from her office as vice president, and from the Department of Education during the brief time she served as its concurrent secretary; and threatening to have President Marcos and the first lady assassinated. There is strong evidence in both instances; in the latter, she actually made her threats in a Facebook video seen by millions.

Again, under normal circumstances, she would swiftly be removed from office and jailed, but normal is not something to count on here, so it remains to be seen. Sara’s announcement of her presidential candidacy was blatantly calculated to create a distraction, and allow her to posture as the victim of political persecution. The fact that almost everyone saw through this immediately does not bode well for her, but on the other hand, any impeachment is as much if not more a political exercise than it is a judicial one, so this could still go either way.

Most of the people that I talk to – a mix of Filipino business people in various sectors, and foreign investors – are quite anxious that Sara Duterte not become president in 2028. Her father, who is now being held by the International Criminal Court in The Hague on charges of crimes against humanity, was an utter disaster as president quite apart from the between 7,000 and 20,000 people he ordered killed during his term, and his daughter does not have one-tenth his brainpower or political instincts. Sara Duterte’s brief stint as Education Secretary is notable primarily for being a complete dumpster fire, even if one overlooks the massage malversation of public funds. She is bad-tempered and stupid, and if she were to become president, the contraction of the Philippine economy would be breathtaking.

Nonetheless, she is forging ahead, perhaps because she has concluded – probably rightly – that the best chance of saving her neck from impeachment is to launch the distraction of a presidential campaign. The trouble with that idea, as I see it, is that she did it too soon. Presenting oneself as a presidential candidate exposes one to relentless attacks from opponents; even if she prevails in the impeachment, the salacious details of her various misdeeds and general lack of competence that will emerge during the proceedings will provide her enemies ammunition for more than two full years.

She is also not doing herself any favors with the prospective running mates that have been put forward. Sen. Imee Marcos, the president’s older sister, is a gold-digging shrew who has had more plastic surgery than Michael Jackson, and is best known for having at least one of her public critics brutally murdered during the days of the dictatorship of her father, Ferdinand Marcos Sr.

First-term Sen. Rodante Marcoleta, a legislative plant from the powerful Iglesia ni Cristo religious cult, is best-known for having been a vocal proponent of the bogus Covid-19 treatment Ivermectin (people were infected with a flu-like virus, not equine intestinal worms, dipshit) a few

years ago at the height of the pandemic.

And finally, we have Sen. Robin Padilla, a washed-up mid-90s action star who once did a couple of years in prison on a weapons charge and has a vibe that makes one reach for the hand sanitizer if he’s even in the same building.  Padilla’s best-remembered work is as the one-time “brand ambassador” for Sogo, a large Philippine chain of short-time hotels.

For a time, Sogo tried really hard to change its image as a hook-up spot, which was hilarious and roundly mocked by the public, so they decided to just embrace who they are and hired this jabroni as their endorser.

I’ve actually stayed in a Sogo on two different occasions when I needed a place to crash – alone, I would like to emphasize (the front desk did on both occasions ask if anyone would be joining me) – and they’re honestly not bad, for the price. Just find something to watch on HBO and turn the volume up to drown out the sound of someone in the adjacent room getting their ashes hauled, and you’ll get a decent night’s sleep.

I take it as a small sign of hope that most of the political punditry in this country regards Sara Duterte’s presidential bid as something of a joke, so for now, I am not seriously worried that she might actually get herself elected. However, as in most democratic countries, people here in the Philippines tend to vote against their own interests if the candidate happens to have a recognizable name, so the situation could be very different – and frankly horrifying – come mid-2028.